AI and work presents a fork: redistribution within the workplace, or redefinition of the workplace. A socialist analysis should distinguish between the two. Vivek Chibber’s recent piece in Jacobin doesn’t.
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Why every prediction about AI and work is already wrong
In 2023 Felten et al took a snapshot of work-as-described and asked which bits looked like language tasks. It aged badly because the snapshot mistook the current frame for a stable target. A 2026 NBER chaining paper is more sophisticated—it sees that adjacency and sequence matter, not just task content—but it still assumes the step structure is given and stable enough to reason about. It too will age badly. Both use deductive models of a system that evolves faster than the models can be validated.
Continue readingTool-to-Work vs Work-to-Tool
There’s a fundamental tension between the top-down tool-to-work model foundational in economics and the bottom-up work-to-tool model we see across other disciplines—a tension that Mokyr’s recent Nobel highlights. The […]
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The Crooked Path
Why Breakthroughs Disappoint and Work Delivers
You know that feeling when you read about the latest “breakthrough” technology that’s going to change everything—fusion finally working, quantum computers achieving some new milestone, brain-computer interfaces getting closer to reality—and part of you feels excited but part of you thinks, haven’t I heard this before?
I’ve been carrying around a low-level disappointment about technology promises for years now. Remember when VR was going to transform everything? You bought into the hype, got a headset, used it enthusiastically for maybe two weeks, and now it’s gathering dust in a closet. Or self-driving cars: we’ve been perpetually “just a few years away” from full autonomy for over a decade now (and the current rollout still relies on an operations centre with remote drivers). Blockchain was going to revolutionise everything from voting to supply chains, but mostly it revolutionised speculation and energy consumption.
This got me wondering: why does this keep happening?
Continue readingThe Intelligent Hand
Why Richard Sennett’s The Craftsman Explains Our Current Expertise Crisis
Why do expert predictions keep failing while practical adaptations keep succeeding?
I’ve been tracking this pattern across domains—AI researchers confident about artificial general intelligence while consultants quietly discover ChatGPT helps structure client presentations; fusion physicists announcing breakthroughs while the technology remains perpetually “almost ready”; policy experts debating digital transformation frameworks while small businesses just start using whatever tools solve Tuesday’s problems.
The disconnect isn’t accidental. It reveals something fundamental about how knowledge actually develops versus how we think it should. And Richard Sennett’s The Craftsman, published in 2008, provides the clearest framework I’ve found for understanding why this split keeps widening—and why it matters more than we realize.
Continue readingFluency Without Thought: New Evidence for the LLM Productivity Trap
A recent academic paper—Your Brain on ChatGPT: Accumulation of Cognitive Debt when Using an AI Assistant for Essay Writing—offers compelling empirical evidence for a claim I’ve been exploring: that LLMs are reshaping knowledge work in ways that increase surface fluency while weakening deeper forms of cognitive engagement.
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The Power Loom Principle
We’ve mistaken where progress really comes from. It’s not the invention—it’s the reinvention of work.
We’re pouring billions into AI, automation, and other “hero” technologies, hoping for a productivity miracle. But the real source of past leaps wasn’t the tech itself. It was how we reorganised work around it. In my latest Substack post, The Power Loom Principle, I explore how this blind spot is stalling growth—and what we must do to reignite it.
Continue readingThree (good) books on creativity
Creativity is an important and interesting topic. Unfortunately it’s a topic that seems to be dominated by hot takes, uninformed speculation, and personal anecdotes. This is even true for much academic work and articles in magazines published by the b.schools.
There’s a rich body of creativity research full of all sorts of interesting ideas, but it’s often ignored or glossed over. One factor contributing to this is the lack of a good introductory book for a general reader. For some time I’ve been referring folk interested in creativity research to Teaching creativity in the common core. The books limitation, though, is that it’s focused on secondary education which can be a distraction for some readers.
A new book, The creativity advantage by James Kaufman (one of the authors of Teaching creativity in the common core) neatly fills this hole. James provides us with an easy to read overview of research into creativity (in a somewhat quirky style, but which works) and delves into some of the benefits of creativity (beyond the obvious). The whole narrative is illustrated with anecdotes to help make the ideas concrete for the read. It’s now my go-to recommendation for a a good introductory book on creativity.
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The trust deficit between workers and organizations isn’t personal. It’s systemic.
In uncertain times, leaders should embrace ambiguity and adopt an “act to decide” approach, taking small, exploratory actions to navigate unpredictability. This method prevents premature commitments based on incomplete data and fosters adaptability. By tolerating uncertainty and leveraging interconnected ecosystems, organizations can thrive.
Continue readingGen AI’s other use
The hype for generative AI doesn’t seem to be dying off. This is unsurprising as—unlike the metaverse, blockchain, and crypto—the technology is providing demonstrable benefits. We’re clearly in the installation phase where mad experimentation is the rule rather than the exception.
A lot of the mad experimentation we’re seeing is focused on either integrating new things into a LLM, or on jamming a LLM into some existing solution to ‘revolutionise’ it. There’s some great stuff in there—a wealth of new LLM-powered creative tools is enabling us to unleash our artistic urgers. On the other hand, integrating a LLM with an online learning platform is useful, but unlikely to be revolutionary.
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