Tag Archives: energy

Social media: bubble, definitely not; revolution, probably not; evolution, absolutely

Is Social Media in general (and mobility in particular) a bubble or revolution? Is it a a powerful and disruptive force that will transform governments and social organisations? Or is it no? There seems to be a few{{1}} people{{2}} pondering this question

[[1]]The video above is less than a minute long. Please … @ bryan.vc[[1]]
[[2]]Is The Mobile Phone Our Social Net? @ AVC[[2]]

Mobile phones are interesting as they are addressable. Two-way radios made communication mobile a long time ago, but it wasn’t until mobile phones (and cheap mobile phones, specifically) that we could address someone on the move, or someone on the move could address a stationary person or service.

The second and third world showed us the potential of this technology over ten year ago, from the fishermen using their phones to market and sell their catch while still on the boat, through to the distributed banking based on pre-paid mobile phone cards. Image/video sharing is just the latest evolution in this.

The idea that this might be a revolution seems to be predicated on the technology’s ability to topple centrally planned and controlled organisations. Oddly enough, central planning is a bad enough idea to fall over on its own in many cases, and the only effect of mobile technology is to speed up a process which is already in motion. The Soviet Union might well be the poster child for this: collapsing under the weight of it’s own bureaucracy with no help from social media (or mobile phones, for that matter). Even modern democracies are not immune, and the US energy regulation policies leading up to deregulation in the late 70s is a great example of the failures of central planning{{3}}. The (pending) failure of some of today’s more centralised, and authoritarian regimes, would be more accurately ascribed to the inability of slow moving, centrally managed bureaucracies to adapt to a rapidly changing environment. Distributed planning always trumps central planning in a rapidly changing environment.

[[3]]The Role of Petroleum Price and Allocation Regulations in Managing Energy Shortages @ Annual Review of Energy[[3]]

If we pause for a moment, we can see that governments do a few distinct things for us.

  • They provide us with what is seen as essential services.
  • They create a platform to enforce social norms (policies and laws).
  • They engage with the rest of the world on our behalf.

The reality is that many of the essential services that government provides are provided by the government because it’s too difficult or expensive for citizens (and to some extent, corporations) to access the information they need to run these services themselves. Mobile phones (and social media) are just the latest in a series of technologies that have changed these costs, enabling companies and citizens to take responsibility for providing services which, previously, were the sole domain of government. From energy, water and telecoms, through FixMyStreet and the evolving use of social media in New Orleans, Haiti and then Queensland during their respective natural disasters, we can see that this is a long running and continuing trend. Government is migrating from a role of providing all services, to one where government helps facilitate our access to the services we need. Expect this to continue, and keep building those apps.

As a platform for agreeing and enforcing social norms, then it’s hard to see anything replacing government in the short to mid term. (As always, the long term is completely up for grabs.) These social norms are geographical – based on the people you interact with directly on a day-to-day basis – and not virtual. Social media provides a mechanism for government to broaden the conversation. Some governments are embracing this, others, not so much. However, while people like to be consulted, they care a lot more about results. (Think Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs{{4}}.) Singapore has a fairly restrictive and controlling government, which has (on the whole) a very happy population. China is playing a careful game of balancing consultation, control and outcomes, and seems to doing this successfully.

[[4]]Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs @ Abraham-Maslow[[4]]

Finally we come to the most interesting question: government as a means for us to engage with the rest of the world. In this area, government’s role has shrunk in scope but grown in importance. Globalisation and the Internet (as a communication tool) has transformed societies, making it cheaper to call friends across the globe than it is to call them around the corner. We all have friends in other countries, cross-border relationships are common, and many of us see ourselves as global citizens. At the same time, the solutions to many of today’s most pressing issues, such as global warming, have important aspects which can only be addressed by our representatives on the global stage.

So we come back to the question at hand: is social media a bubble, a revolution, or an evolution of what has come before.

It’s hard to see it as a bubble: the changes driven by social media are obviously providing real value so we can expect them to persist and expand. I was particularly impressed by how the Queensland government had internalised a lot of the good ideas from the use of social media{{5}} in the Victorian fires, Haiti et al.

[[5]]Emergency services embrace Social Media @ Social Media Daily[[5]]

We can probably discount revolution too, as social media is (at most) a better communication tool and not a new theory of government. (What would Karl Marx think?) However, by dramatically changing the cost of communication it is having a material impact of the role government in our lives{{6}}. Government, and the society it represents is evolving in response.

[[6]]The changing role of government @ PEG[[6]]

The challenge is to keep political preference separate from societal need. While you might yearn for the type of society that Ayn Rand only ever dreamed about, other people find your utopia more akin to one of Dante’s seven circles of hell. Many of the visions for Gov 2.0 are political visions – individuals’ ideas for how they would organise an ideal society – rather than views of how technology can best be used to support society as a whole.

China is the elephant in this room. If social media is a disruptive, revolutionary force, then we can expect China’s government to topple. What appears more likely is that China will integrate social media into its toolbox while it focuses on keeping its population happy, evolving in the process. As long as they deliver the lower half of Maslow’s Hierarchy, they’ll be fairly safe. After all, the expulsion of governments and organisations – the revolution that social media is involved in – is due to these organisations’ inability to provide for the needs of their population, rather than any revolutionary compulsion inherent in the technology itself.

Is “agile enterprise IT” an oxymoron?

Have we managed to design agility out of enterprise IT? Are the two now incompatible? Our decision to measure IT purely in terms of cost (ROI) or stability (SLAs) means that we have put aside other desirable characteristics like responsiveness, making our IT estates more like the lumbering airships of the 1920s. While efficient and reliable (once we got the hydrogen out of them), they are neither exciting or responsive to the business. The business ends up going elsewhere for their thrills. What to do?

LZ-127 Graf Zeppelin
LZ-127 Graf Zeppelin

An interesting post on jugaad over at the Capgemini CTO blog got me thinking. The tension between the managed chaos that jugaad seems to represent and the stability we strive for in IT seems to nicely capture the current tensions between business and IT. Business finds that opportunities are blinking in and out of existence faster than ever before, providing dramatically reduced windows of opportunity leaving IT departments unable to respond in time, prompting the business to look outside the organisation for solutions.

The first rule of CIOs is “you only have a seat at the strategy table if you’re keeping the lights on”. The pressure is on to keep the transactions flowing, and we spend a lot of time and money (usually the vast majority of our budget) ensuring that transactions do indeed flow. We often complain that our entire focus seems to be on cost and operations, when there is so much more we can bring to the leadership team. We forget that all departments labour under a similar rule, and all these rules are really just localised versions of a single overarching rule: the first rule of business, which is to be in business (i.e. remain solvent). Sales needs to sell, manufacturing needs to manufacture, … By devoting so much of our energy on cost and stability, we seems to have dug ourselves into a bit of a hole.

There’s another rule that I like to quote from time-to-time: management is not the art of making the perfect decision, but making a timely decision and then making it work. This seems to be something we’ve forgotten in the West, and particularly in IT. Perfection is an unattainable ideal in the real world, and agility requires a little chaos/instability. What’s interesting about jugaad is the concept’s ability to embrace the chaos required to succeed when resource constraints prevent you for using the perfect (or even simply the best) solution.

Vickers F.B. 5 Gunbus
Vickers F.B.5. Gunbus

Consider a fighter plane. The other day I was watching a documentary on the history of aircraft which showed how the evolution of fighters is a progression from stability to instability The first fighters (and we’re talking the start of WWI here–all fabric and glue) were designed to float above the battlefield where the pilots could shoot down at soldiers, or even lob bombs at them. They were designed to be very stable, so stable that the pilot could ignore the controls for a while and the plane would fly itself. Or you could shoot out most of the control surfaces and still land safely. (Sounds a bit like a modern, bullet proof, IT application, eh?)

The Red Baron: NAME
The Red Baron: Manfred von Richthofen

The problem with these planes is that they are very stable. It’s hard to make them turn and dance about, and this makes them easy to shoot down. They needed to be more agile, harder to shoot down, and the solution was to make them less stable. The result, by the end of WWI, was the fairly unstable tri-planes we associate with the Red Baron. Yes, this made them harder to fly, and even harder to land, but it also made them harder to hit.

Wizz forward to the modern day, and we find that all modern fighters are unstable by design. They’re so unstable that they’re unflyable without modern fly-by-wire systems. Forget about landing: you couldn’t even get them off the ground without their fancy control systems. The governance of the fly-by-wire systems lets the pilot control the uncontrollable.

The problem with modern IT is that it is too stable. Not the parts, the individual applications, but the IT estate as a whole. We’ve designed agility out of it, focusing on creating a stable and efficient platform for lobbing bombs onto the enemy below. This is great is the landscape below us doesn’t change, and the enemy promises not to move or shoot back, but not so good in today’s rapidly changing business environment. We need to be able to rapidly turn and dance about, both to dodge bullets and pounce on opportunities. We need some instability as instability means that we’re poised for change.

Jugaad points out that we need to allow in a bit of chaos if we want to bring the agility back in. The chaos jugaad provides is the instability we need. This will require us to update our governance processes, evolving them beyond simply being a tool to stop the bad happening, transforming governance into a tool for harvesting the jugaad where it occurs. After all, the role of enterprise IT is to capture good ideas and automate them, allowing them to be leveraged across the entire enterprise.

Managing chaos has become something of a science in the aircraft world. Tools like Energy-Maneuverability theory are used during aircraft design to make informed tradeoffs between weight, weapons load, amount of wing (i.e. ability to turn), and so on. This goes well beyond most efforts to map and score business processes, which is inherently a static pieces/parts and cost driven approach. Our focus should be on using different technologies and delivery approaches to modify how our IT estate responds to business change; optimising our IT estate’s dynamic, change-driven characteristics as well as its cost-driven static characteristics.

This might be the root of some of the problems we’re seeing between business and IT. IT’s tendency to measure value in terms of cost and/or stability leads us to create IT estates optimised for a static environment, which are at odds with the dynamic nature of the modern business environment. We should be focusing on the overall dynamic business performance of the IT estate, its energy-maneuverability profile.

The value of information

We all know that data is valuable; without it it would be somewhat difficult to bill customers and stay in business. Some companies have accumulated masses of data in a data warehouse which they’ve used to drive organizational efficiencies or performance improvements. But do we ever ask ourselves when is the data most valuable?

Billing is important, but if we get the data earlier then we might be able to deal with a problem—a business exception—more efficiently. Resolving a short pick, for example, before the customer notices. Or perhaps even predicting a stock-out. And in the current hyper-competitive business environment where everyone is good, having data and the insight that comes with it just a little bit sooner might be enough to give us an edge.

A good friend of mine often talks about the value of information in a meter. This makes more sense when you know that he’s a utility/energy guru who’s up to his elbows in the U.S. smart metering roll out. Information is a useful thing when you’re putting together systems to manage distributed networks of assets worth billions of dollars. While the data will still be used to drive billing in the end, the sooner we receive the data the more we can do with it.

One of the factors driving the configuration of smart meter networks is the potential uses for the information the meters will generate. A simple approach is to view smart meters as a way to reduce the cost of meter reading; have meters automatically phone readings home rather than drive past each customer’s premisses in a truck and eyeball each meter. We might even used this reduced cost to read the meters more frequently, shrinking our billing cycle, and the revenue outstanding with it. However, the information we’re working from will still be months, or even quarters, old.

If we’re smart (and our meter has the right instrumentation) then we will know exactly which and how many houses have been affected by a fault. Vegetation management (tree trimming) could become proactive by analyzing electrical noise on the power lines that the smart meters can see, and determine where along a power line we need to trim the trees. This lets us go directly to where work needs to be done, rather than driving past every every power line on a schedule—a significant cost and time saving, not to mention an opportunity to engage customers more closely and service them better.

If our information is a bit younger (days or weeks rather than months) then we can use it too schedule just-in-time maintenance. The same meters can watch for power fluctuations coming out of transformers, motors and so on, looking for the tell tail signs of imminent failure. Teams rush out and replace the asset just before it fails, rather than working to a program of scheduled maintenance (maintenance which might be causing some of the failures).

When the information is only minutes old we can consider demand shaping. By turning off hot water heaters and letting them coast we can avoid spinning up more generators.

If we get at or below seconds we can start using the information for load balancing across the network, managing faults and responding to disasters.

I think we, outside the energy industry, are missing a trick. We tend to use a narrow, operational view of the information we can derive from our IT estate. Data is either considered transactional or historical; we’re either using it in an active transaction or we’re using it to generate reports well after the event. We typically don’t consider what other uses we might put the information to if it were available in shorter time frames.

I like to think of information availability in terms of a time continuum, rather than a simple transactional/historical split. The earlier we use the information, the more potential value we can wring from it.

The value of data
The value of data decreases rapidly with age

There’s no end of useful purposes we can turn our information too between the billing and transactional timeframes. Operational excellence and business intelligence allow us to tune business processes to follow monthly or seasonal cycles. Sales and logistics are tuned on a weekly basis to adjust for the dynamics of the current holiday. Days old information would allow us to respond in days, calling a client when we haven’t received their regular order (a non-event). Operations can use hours old information for capacity planning, watching for something trending in the wrong direction and responding before everything falls overs.

If we can use trending data—predicting stock-outs and watching trends in real time—then we can identify opportunities or head off business exceptions before they become exceptional. BAM (business activity monitoring) and real-time data warehouses take on new meaning when viewed in this light.

In a world where we are all good, being smart about the information we can harvest from our business environment (both inside and outside our organization) has the potential to make us exceptional.

Update: Andy Mulholland has a nice build on this idea over at Capgemini‘s CTO blog: Have we really understood what Business Intelligence means?

There’s more to sustainability than simply using less

I wouldn’t be too surprised if the Australian government passes legislation requiring all residents to shower with a friend in an effort to save water. We’re in a bit of a bind; the longest drought in living memory combined with global warming and climate change means that there is just not enough water to go around.

Energy, water and our population are all interrelated
Energy, water and our population are all interrelated

It’s not just a lack of water causing problems though. Manufacturing more energy (electricity) requires huge amounts of water (for steam), while manufacturing more water requires huge amounts of energy (for desalination). Factor in a growing and increasingly urban population and you quickly realize that washing your car every few weeks and buying energy appliances just won’t cut it.

Take the electrify industry for example. Today’s electricity utilities follow a model that is relatively unchanged since Samuel Insull’s day. Electrons are manufactured in large power stations before they are trucked down wires to where they are consumed by consumer and industrial devices. Demand dictates supply. Electrons are shared equally among devices and if we don’t have enough to meet demand, then everyone gets less than they need. The result is brownouts: motors fuse, traffic lights dim and people crash. Life generally stops.

Electricity production since Samuel Insulls day
Electricity production since Samuel Insull's day

Micro-generation and CHP (combined heat and power) will alleviate the problem somewhat, but if we want an electricity supply for a sustainable future then we need to completely rethink how electricity is managed. We need to move from a demand-driven system, to a supply-driven system. Rather than racing to manufacture enough electricity to fulfill demand, the focus would be on effectively using the energy available to us.

The technology required to reinvent electricity distribution is already emerging into the commercial world. The global rollout of smart metering is providing us with the basic infrastructure for a new, smarter energy distribution system. The challenge is to move beyond conventional centrally run demand management programmes, and adopt more distributed approaches. Technology is already emerging into the commercial arena demonstrating the first tentative steps on this journey.

Imagine if we could import the retail electricity spot price into the home or factory via smart metering. We have national energy markets, so why not create an energy market inside our houses? Local generation (solar, wind, CHP) would have a price set based on required required return on investment, while energy is imported (if required) based on the spot price. The decision if and when to consume electricity is then devolved to the appliances (fridge, air conditioner etc) by letting them bid for the energy they need.

An internal energy market
An internal energy market

The intelligence to support this complex behavior might be buried inside the appliance itself, or mediated via a smart plug. A hot water heater would trade of electricity price, usage profile and current water temperature to optimize its operation. Air conditioners might let the internal temperature rise a couple of degrees if its exceptionally hit out side. A dish washer might wait until a quiet period late at night—long after you’ve gone to bed—before running it’s cycle. Lights would always turn on (of course), but would also turn off again if they cannot detect anyone in the room.

Given an understanding of our usage patterns a market can be used to turn of appliances we don’t need, harvest power then it is cheap (by using waste solar power to pump water up hill), or even sell our excess. Technology enables us to understand our usage patterns and align them with the internal and national energy market to most effectively use the energy available to us.

The new complexity this approach creates could be packaged into solutions. Energy retailers could offer energy plans, analogous to mobile phone plans. Each plan would be tailored to suit different habits and needs. Plans might include value-added solutions, such as installing solar or wind power on premises, integrated into the home market.

In the same way that Threadless and Rolls Royce mined the synergies between business and technology to reinvent their respective industries, some companies might use a supply driven network to transform their business models. Rather than selling electricity (generating more profit by selling more) they might reconfigure themselves into power management companies who help you manage your consumption (generating more profit by selling less). This could range from configuring, monitoring and managing you home appliances to match their performance to your needs, through to installing solar panels on your own roof—at their own cost—so that that they can offer solar power on your internal energy market.

What are the challenges and opportunities created when we move to a supply driven model? What happens when we have supply driven homes? Supply driven committees? Supply driven regions? Or when entire networks become supply driven?

What are the challenges and opportunities created when we move to a supply driven model?
What are the challenges and opportunities created when we move to a supply driven model?

Smart metering and smart plugs are showing us the way. We already have a demand signal, though somewhat delayed, and we can retro-fit appliances with smart plugs to support demand management. The next step is to make this infrastructure a little smarter; upgrading the sensor network to support more distributed command and control, and embedding decision making in the home and, ultimately, the appliances themselves. This enables us to push decision making to the edge of the network where it can scale more effectively, provides us with a generation of much more efficient applications, and sets us up for the future.