Posterous

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I stumbled onto a somewhat interesting post over at HBR, which talks Garry Kasparov’s ideas in the business world. This is actually quite a relevant pairing, though an old one in the tradition of human-computer augmentation.

The idea a simple one, which takes far fewer words to express than the article took.

Use information technology to augment users, rather than replace them.

IT is good at lot of tasks, and less good at others. People, too, have their strengths and weaknesses. What’s interesting is that computers are weak where people are strong, and vice-versa. Computers excel as appliers of algorithms with huge memories and an attention to detail; people are powerful, creative problem solvers who have trouble thinking of four things at once and like coffee breaks. Why not pair the two, and get the best of both worlds.

Rather than replace the users, why don’t we use technology to automate the easy (for technology) 80% of what they do. (This is something I’ve written about before.) In the chess example, the easy 80% is providing the user with a chess computer for the commoditized solution space search, allowing them to focus on strategy. The performance improvement this approach provides can create an significant competitive advantage. As Garry Kasparov found, even a weak user with a chess computer can be impossible to defeat, by human or computer.

This then provides us with two options:

  1. Take the improvement as a saving by reducing head count.
  2. Reinvest the improvement by providing our users with more time to focus on the hard 20%.

(I must admit, i much prefer the later.)

If we continue to focus on automating the next easy 80%, we’ve created a platform and process for continual business optimisation. (Improvements in search efficiency would simply be harvested when appropriate to maintain parity.) Interestingly, this is one of only two sources of a sustainable competitive advantage available to us today.

The competative advantage with this approach rests with the user, in the commonplaces, the strategies, they use to solve problems. By reifying the easy 80% these strategies in software (processes and rules) we are moving some of the competitive advantage into the organisation with it can leveraged by other users. By continually attacking the easy 80% of what the users are doing, we are continually improving our competitive position. We could even sell our IT platform (but not the reified problem solving strategies) to our competitors — commoditzing the platform to realise a cost saving — without endangering our competitive position, as they would need to go through the same improvement and learning process that we did, while we continue to race ahead.

Now that’s scary: as long as we keep improving our process, our competitors will never be able to catch us.

Posted via web from PEG @ Posterous

I’ve already written about why I think private clouds can be a good idea. Similar arguments can be made for SaaS, and then some. A friend and I did the email-ping-pong thing and ended up with a (shortish) list of reasons why to go with a SaaS solution over an traditional on-premises solution.

  • OPEX rather than CAPEX cost. The CAPEX gulp is minimised, and the ongoing costs are tied to your own operational cost (head count, etc).
  • Faster provisioning. SaaS is can be up to 90% faster to deploy than on-premises solutions. (Weeks/months rather than months/years.)
  • No more upgrades. You’re always on the latest version, and new features are roll out organically rather than every few years as part of a change management process.
  • More focused vendor and community support. As there is only a single version in play, support efforts from the vendor and user community are focused on the version that you’re using. This also avoids the problem of getting left behind on a stale and unsupported platform (been there, done that, and have the scars to prove it).
  • SaaS provides a platform that scales organically with our organization. You’re not required to invest in additional hardware, software, and provisioning processes, letting your business focus on the business.
  • Reduced IT involvement. IT resources can focus on specific business problems rather than the care and feeding of the system.
  • Try before you buy. Instead of a traditional big license gulp at risk, sign up for a handful of SaaS seats for a few weeks and try it out. (From @shermo1.)

Any more?

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Death, taxes, and now, change, are the eternal verities. As I said in another post:

The pace of change has accelerated to the point that everyone’s challenge, from Pre-Boomers and Baby Boomers through Generation Y to Generation Z, is how to cope with significant change over the next ten years. If we are, as some predict, moving to an innovation economy, then it is the ability to adapt that is most important. Those betting their organisation on a generational change will be sadly disappointed as no generation has a monopoly on coping with change.

While the youngest generation (whichever that is at a particular point in time) might have the advantage of coming unencumbered to the new ways of working, every generation has a unfortunate habit of treating what they learnt in their formative years (~24) as dogma once they hit their late 20s. Social research has shown that most people’s interest in novel ideas or experiences peaks around the mid to late 20s. (Tell me your favourite band and cuisine, and I’ll tell you what decade you grew up in.) Or, put another way, 24–28 might have the advantage in a rapidly changing world, but once you grow out the top of that age bracket you’ll find yourself at the disadvantage.

However, as with all gross generalisations, and the exceptions are more interesting than the rule; in this case the commonalities between groups are usually stronger than the differences between them. Research like Forrest’s Groundswell show that its more productive to think in terms of personality types.

I prefer to focus on getting stuff done, and ensuring that each and every stakeholder has the tools and support they need to get their job done. This is not a static thing either, something we do once for each stakeholder, as someone’s needs and preferences can change month-by-month, week-by-week, day-by-day or even minute-by-minute.

And this is probably the most important mega-trend we’re seeing emerge at the moment: the drive to continually personalise communication/products/services/tools for each and every individual, rather than trying to divide people into coarse-grained, and increasingly unproductive, demographic groups with predefined needs. If you’re managing change, then you’re still thinking in terms of a static work/home environment that needs to be transformed (however regularly). If you’re managing personalisation, then you’re focused on creating a continually optimised environment for all your stakeholders, ensuring that they have the information and tools they need at that moment. Change isn’t an enemy that should be managed—its a tool to help you achieve, and sustain, peak performance.

Posted via web from PEG @ Posterous

There’s a quite a bit of noise in the blogsphere about the coming entrepreneurship boom, generating yet another pointless debate about the distinction between generations. What is really going to drive this new boom is the ability to find new white spaces, not access resources or connections (people forget that Sergy & Larry had a good idea and connections into the VC network in the Bay Area).

Twitpic is a case in point. Started on a spare server to scratch an itch, Twitpic is a poster child on how to build something new with little or no resources or connections.

  • In terms of traffic, Alexa says Twitpic is a top 100 site.
  • In 2009, the site did over $1.5 million in ad sales.
  • For every million in sales, the company keeps $700,000.
  • The site has about 6.5 million registered users.
  • Noah, the founder, was recently offered 8 figures for the business.
  • There are only 4 people working on the site (including Noah’s parents).

The common point with services like Twitpic and Craig’s List is that this new generation of businesses are creating new white spaces, and that the cost and accessibility of attacking these white spaces is now very very low.

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Google (well, James Hamilton) has weighted in on the question of private clouds. As expected from a large cloud provider, James takes the position that private clouds make no sense. His reasoning is straight forward: private clouds will never have the scale of public clouds, therefore private clouds can never achieve the same price point as their public brethren. Ergo, there’s no point in building private clouds.

As I’ve pointed out before, there’s a lot more to cloud than simply reducing costs. The biggest benefit is probably the agility that cloud can bring to your IT estate, leveraging a cloud platform’s ability to codify and automate many of the management practices and create a target platform that can work across a range of deployment options, as well as streamlining hardware provisioning. Companies are also increasingly having to deal with the realities of political boundaries, a situation where the best technical solution might not be acceptable due to legal requirements (such as privacy legislation). Developing a private cloud can be a sensible move in this context.

Of course, if you want to compete purely on cost then private cloud will never hit the same price point as public cloud. But this misses the point that for many companies IT flexibility/agility is more important than cost.

Note: I was going to post this as a comment on James’ post, but comments appear to be broken.

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Garther have suggested that by 2012, 20% of companies will own no IT assets. At the same time we have Forrester predicting a boom in IT. I think both of them are right, and what we’re seeing is a breaking of the old covenant between business and the IT services industry (which includes internal IT departments). The old relationship was founded on the development and maintenance of IT assets (networks, applications, desktops …). The new one will be founded on something different. The new IT industry is going to be a different beast (i.e. no more strategic transformation or infrastructure projects), and we’ll need to radically reconfigure our organisations if we want to play a part.

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We’re drowning in information, as I’ve written about before, both in the context of Business Intelligence and Innovation (whatever that is). An interesting blog post by Tim Kastelle over at his Innovation Leadership Network takes the somewhat contrarian view, that we have always had this information overload problem. Quoting Stowe Boyd, he points out:

I suggest we just haven’t experimented enough with ways to render information in more usable ways, and once we start to do so, it will like take 10 years (the 10,000 hour rule again) before anyone demonstrates real mastery of the techniques involved.

The problem is that our current tooling for information processing is not up to the task at hand. Unfortunately Tim, like most of us, is still trying to find the best way to managed the information load pressing down on us.

Any suggestions?

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I pointed out the other day, that we seem to be at a tipping point for BI. The quest for more seems to be loosing its head of steam, with most decision makers drowning in a sea of massaged and smoothed data. There are some good moves to look beyond our traditional stomping ground of transactional data, but the real challenge is not in considering more data, but to consider the right data.

Most interesting business decisions seem to be a synthesis process. We take a handful of data and fuse them to create an insight. The invention of breath strips is a case in point. We can rarely break our problem down to a single (computed) metric, the world just doesn’t work that way.

Most business decisions rest on small number of data points. It’s just one of our cognitive limits: our working memory is only large enough to hold (approximately) four things (concepts and/or data points) in our head at once. This is one reason that I think Andrew McAfee’s cut-down business case works so well; it works with our human limitations rather than against them.

I was watching an interesting talk the other day — Peter Norvig was providing some gentle suggestions on what features should be beneficial in a language to support scientific computing. Somewhere in the middle of the talk he mentioned the Curse of dimensionality, which is something I hadn’t thought of for a while. This is the problem caused by the exponential increase in volume associated with each additional dimension of (mathematical) space.

In terms of the problem we’re considering, this means that if you are looking for n insights to a problem in a field of data (the n best data points to drive our decision), then finding them becomes exponentially harder for each data set (dimension) we add. More isn’t necessarily better. While the addition of new data sets (such as sourcing data from social networks) enables us to create new correlations, we’re also forced to search an exponentially larger area to find them. It’s the law of diminishing returns.

Our inbuilt cognitive limit only complicates this. When we hit our cognitive limit — when n becomes as large as we can usefully use — any additional correlations can become a burden rather than a benefit. In today’s rich and varied information environment, the problem isn’t to consider more data, or to find more correlations, its to find the best three or features in the data which will drive our decision in the right direction.

How do we navigate from the outside in? From the decision we need, to the data that will drive it. This is the problem I hope the Value of Information discussion addresses.

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As I’ve mentioned before, I would like a nice, clear, crisp definition for mash-up. A definition which captures the benefits that mash-ups can bring, rather than detailing a collection of tools, technologies and standards that we happen to find interesting at the time. For me, this is the TQM argument of fusing data and process to eliminate unnecessary decisions—make-work or swivel chair integration—to create a more efficient and effective work environment.

It’s Just a Bunch of Stuff That Happens has done a brilliant job of capturing this visually (included below). I like the usability aspect this highlights. A mash-up’s focus is cross-application usability—removing the annoyances of dealing with separate information sources. We could simply take these sources and squish them up against the glass, delivering the content into iGoogle or NetVibes gadgets. But what those original push-pins on a map mash-ups did was improve the usability of these information sources by eliminating the decisions required to navigate across them. Just as Apple did with the iPod and iPhone, eliminating or fusing functions to eliminate the (unnecessary) decisions required to navigate the overly complex and confusing interfaces of the mobile phones that came before them.

iGoogle and NetVibes are the Symbian to a mash-up’s iPhone.

Symplicity

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I learnt a new term at lunch the other day: regret cost. Apparently this is the cost incurred to re-platform or replace a tactical solution when it can no longer scale to support current demand. If we’d just built the big one in the first place, then we wouldn’t need to write of the investment in the tactical solution. An investment we now regret, apparently.

This attitude completely misses the point. The art of business is not to take the time to make a perfect decision, but to make a timely decision and make it work. Business opportunities are often only accessible in a narrow time window. If we miss the window then we can’t harvest the opportunity, and we might as well have not bothered.

Building the big, scalable perfect solution in the first place might be more efficient from an engineering point of view.  However, if we make the delivery effort so large that we miss the window of opportunity, then we’ve just killed any chance of helping the business to capitalise on the opportunity. IT has positioned itself as department that says no, which does little to support a productive relationship with the business.

Size the solution to match the business opportunity, and accept that there may need to be some rework in the future. Make the potential need for rework clear to the business so that there are no surprises. Don’t use potential rework in the future as a reason to do nothing. Or to force approval of a strategic infrastructure project which will deliver sometime in the distant future, a future which may never come.

While rework is annoying and, in an ideal world, a cost to be avoided, sometimes the right thing to do is to build tactical solution that will need to be replaced. After all, the driver to replacing it is the value it’s generating for the business. What is there to regret? That we helped the business be successful? Or that we’re about to help the business be even more successful?

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