I’ve put a slide overview of the book up on slideshare. Or you can look at the embedded version below.
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Cries of ‘analysis paralysis’ are more often fiction than fact. Every time I've heard someone call out the phrase in a meeting it's to end a argument over some particular solution preference rather than an attempt end to an overly long analysis process. The problem isn't too much analysis, it's too little. Surrounded by weak, muddy and conflicting information we often fail to find a clear call to action that we can easily latch onto and end up playing what if with the weak solutions that we can find, unable to commit to one. We need to take a more structured approach to traveling from problem to solution – scan, focus and then act – and apply our judgement rather than trying to skip directly to the end of the book and then arguing about the conclusion.
Tags: Educational psychology, Evaluation, Google, Neuropsychology, possible solutions, Problem, Problem solving
Unlearning is potentially more important than learning[1] as it allows us to sweep away concepts and preferences that are now longer relevant, clearing the way for us to learn something new which doesn’t sit well with what we previously knew. But why is unlearning so hard? It’s because we’re trained from birth to favour ideas and experiences that align with our expectations, and abhor those that clash with them. The real challenge is to manage our expectations, as we’re all expectation machines.
References
1. Unlearning is the most important thing @ PEG↑
Tags: Critical thinking, Education, Educational psychology, Epistemology, Java, Knowledge, Learning, Linda Beamer, Mind, Philosophy of education, Thought
OODA: Observe, Orient, Decide, Act
It seems that I’ve shared this with four or five different groups of people over the last couple of weeks, so I thought it worthwhile putting it on the blog. Plus this is one of those instances where the Wikipedia page is not the best launching point.
Anyway, OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide, Act)[1], shown above, is a learning framework created by John Boyd[2].
Colonel Boyd was an interesting bloke who had a huge influence on military tactics. One of his key insights was that success in a rapidly changing environment depends on your ability to adapt to the environment as it changes about you. The successful army is the one that can adapt as the world changes around it, and not necessarily the army with more resources at its disposal. This is interesting as the evidence is in and it shows that – for the vast majority of businesses – your competitors have very little influence on your success or failure; the largest factor is your ability to adapt and stay relevant as the market changes around you. Think Nokia, RIM and the iPhone. Or think in terms of high speed rail and point-to-point buses vs. discount air travel in Europe. The complication here is that today’s environment is changing so rapidly that your art – your product – might only have a shelf life of six months or so.
References
1. John Boyd, The OODA LOOP, The Essence of Winning and Losing, slide 4 @ danford.net↑
2. A John Boyd Biography @ danford.net↑
Tags: Europe, Intelligence analysis, iPhone, John Boyd, Knowledge, Military, Military strategy, Military terminology, Nokia, OODA loop, strategy, United States Air Force
| Exploration | triggers | Discovery | which enables | Innovation |
| Thinking | triggers | Doing | which enables | Achieving |
| Learning | triggers | Unlearning | which enables | Redoing |
| Comprehending | triggers | Shaping | which enables | Adapting |
| Imagination | triggers | Insight | which enables | Initiative |
Tags: Achieving, Comprehending, Discovery, Doing, Exploration, Innovation, Insight, John Boyd, Learning, Redoing, Synthesis, Thinking, Unlearning
David returns triumphant with the head of Goliath (Palazzo Ferrari, Genoa)
Is success in business due to luck or hard work? It used to be that if you worked hard and invested astutely in your business that you could expect to be rewarded. Build it and they will come. Times have changed though, and more and more often it seems that all that hard work goes to waste when an unknown (and previously unseen) competitor emerges from nowhere to steal the market from under your nose. Success has become random with the business environment perpetually unstable and in constant flux. The market is hit-driven rather than being based on careful investment. Success now depends on coming up with the right product at the right time, and having a fairly large dose of luck. Business development used to mean investing in your business and building up the assets under its control. Now it means maximising your business’s luck (or minimising the luck of others).
Tags: Apple, Betabrands, Computing to connections, Data to decisions, Deloitte, Kogan, Megabus, Resources to reactions, The new instability, The Shift Index
| From | To |
|---|---|
| Linear | Non-linear |
| Static, cause-effect view of individual factors | Dynamic, constantly changing field of interactions |
| Microscopic, local | Wide angle, global |
| Separateness | Relatedness |
| Marketplace | Environment |
| Reductionist | Non-reductionist |
| Component thinking | Seeing and thinking in wholes |
| Time cards, task analysis | Complex Adaptive Systems |
| Problem solving | Butterfly Effect, system feedback |
| Brainstorming | Self-organization, adaptation |
| Polarisation | Environmental scanning plus mapping |
| Structure creates process | Underlying processes and interactions of a system’s variables create self-organizing patterns, shapes and structures |
| Pays attention to policies and procedures that are usually fixed and inflexible | Pays attention to initial conditions, perking information, emerging events, and strange attractors |
| Standing committees | Ad hoc working groups, networks |
| Politics | Learning |
| Planning as discrete event | Planning as continuous process |
| Planning by elite specialist group | Planning requires whole system input |
| Implementation of plan | Implementation flexible and constantly evolving in response to emerging conditions |
| Forecasting through data analysis | Foresight through synthesis |
| Quantitative | Qualitative |
| Controlling, stabilizing or managing change | Responding to and influencing change as it emerges |
| Dinosaur behaviour | Entrepreneurial behaviour |
| Change as threat | Change as opportunity |
| Leads to stagnation and extinction | Leads to renewal and growth |
If you’re in Melbourne (or possibly the surrounding area) and what to grab a paperback copy of The New Instability? Ping me (there’s a contact page) and we can catch up for a coffee and I’ll hand a copy over for AU$15. I’m usually somewhere around the CBD or St Kilda.
I see that online retailers have been admiring the yield management techniques used by airlines and hotels[1]. After all, what's not to like about profit maximisation? Consumer goods, however, are not a time sensitive resource who's value crashes to zero after a particular date. Online retailers might just be starting an arms war with customers that they cannot win. The result will be a race to the bottom as mounting pressure compresses already tight margins.
References
1. Brian Proffitt (September 2012), How much will it cost you? With Dynamic Pricing, online sellers say ‘It depends’.., ReadWriteWeb↑
New book out now
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